Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
