Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Election materials in Burma
The country's junta is holding a staggered vote over the coming weeks.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Judith Vasquez
Judith Vasquez

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in sports betting and casino gaming, specializing in UK markets.